Chuyển đến nội dung chính

Over 70% Odds for a Fed Rate Cut in December: Will Bitcoin Reverse Course?

 The probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in December has surged to over 70%. This sharp shift in expectations is stirring discussion about the potential impact on Bitcoin — could a rate cut be the catalyst for a reversal in its recent price trend?

Why the Fed’s anticipated cut is significant

As of the latest readings from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the market is pricing in better than a 70% chance of a 25 basis‑point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting scheduled for December 9‑10. That would shift the target range from 3.75‑4.00% down to 3.50‑3.75%. 
This dramatic move in the odds reflects several dynamics:

  • Previously, on November 21, the odds were far lower — around 30% — as markets weighed mixed labour data and cautious comments from the Fed’s New York President, John Williams. 

  • The possibility of a cut speaks to a potential shift toward looser monetary policy, which historically has implications for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Monetary policy matters because lower interest rates often mean lower real yields (i.e., yields adjusted for inflation). When real yields fall and liquidity expands, assets that don’t pay interest — like Bitcoin — can become more attractive. 

What this means for Bitcoin

Bitcoin has come under pressure recently. According to the article, over a short period the price fell from around $91,554 to about $80,600, before recovering slightly to ~$84,800. 
Key technical & on‑chain observations include:

  • Many short‑term investors are underwater — recent buyers are in loss‑making positions, which can restrict upside momentum. 

  • On‑chain data from Glassnode shows there are roughly 6.3 million BTC in unrealised loss, mostly down 10‑23.6%. 

  • Price has dipped under the “true market mean” (~$82,000) and the “realised price” of active investors (~$88,600) — indicating structural resistance zones. 

  • ETF flows and derivatives positioning are not showing robust risk‑taking: net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and a derivatives market tilted toward downside protection (i.e., put premiums high). 

All of this suggests that while a rate cut may be favourable for Bitcoin, the market is not yet in high confidence territory that a reversal is imminent.

The caveats: A cut may not be enough

The article emphasises that one single cut isn’t guaranteed to spark a sustained crypto rally. Several conditions must align:

  • The Fed needs to signal the start of a loosening cycle, not just a one‑off adjustment. Without clear forward guidance, the impact on real yields and liquidity could be muted. 

  • If the Fed cuts but emphasises inflation risks and potential hawkish follow‑up, the market may interpret it as temporary relief rather than a pivot — real yields might remain elevated and risk appetite constrained. 

  • Bitcoin faces structural resistance around the ~US$95,000‑97,000 zone (as per Glassnode), and unless risk sentiment improves and flows turn positive, breaking through may be difficult. 

Final thoughts

In short: the over‑70% probability of a Fed rate cut in December is bullish in principle for Bitcoin. Lower rates, lower real yields, and increased liquidity are historically favourable conditions for non‑yielding assets like Bitcoin. However, the market currently shows caution: flows are out, recent holders are in loss, and structural resistance is firm.

So yes — a rate cut could be a turning point for Bitcoin. But at this stage it’s not a guarantee. If the Fed signals more loosening ahead, we might see a clearer reversal. If it signals caution, Bitcoin may remain locked in its current range or even face further pressure.

Ready to start your cryptocurrency journey?

If you’re interested in exploring the world of crypto trading, here are some trusted platforms where you can create an account:

  • Binance – The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume.
  • Bybit – A top choice for derivatives trading with an intuitive interface.
  • OKX – A comprehensive platform featuring spot, futures, DeFi, and a powerful Web3 wallet.
  • KuCoin – Known for its vast selection of altcoins and user-friendly mobile app.

These platforms offer innovative features and a secure environment for trading and learning about cryptocurrencies. Join today and start exploring the opportunities in this exciting space!
🚀 Want to stay updated with the latest insights and discussions on cryptocurrency?
Join our crypto community for news, discussions, and market updates: CryptoBCC on Telegram | X(Twitter)
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk. Always conduct your own research.

Labels:

Nhận xét

Đăng nhận xét

Bài đăng phổ biến từ blog này

Solana’s Moment: Are Investors Sleeping on the Spike in RWA & the Launch of SOL ETFs?

 The crypto market may be approaching a pivotal turning point. While price action often lags behind key structural developments, the gap between fundamentals and market valuation is narrowing — and the spotlight is shining on Solana (SOL). According to recent commentary, Solana could serve as a bellwether for whether prices are about to realign with underlying network strength.  Macro pressures & divergence At the macro level, institutional demand is visibly cooling. For example, MicroStrategy subsidiary Strategy (ticker: MSTR) completed 21 bitcoin purchases in Q2–Q3, contributing to a 36 % rally in BTC. But in Q4, the company’s stock plunged nearly 50 %, signaling that institutional capital into Bitcoin (BTC) is losing momentum.  Solana hasn’t escaped the broader weakness: SOL dropped roughly 40% in the latest quarter — roughly double BTC’s decline.  Yet the divergence arises here: on‑chain activity in the Solana ecosystem is heating up even as price lags....
Đăng nhận xét
Read more »

Unlocking Real‑World Use: MiniPay Enables Stablecoin Spending in Argentina & Brazil

 In a major step toward making crypto more practical for everyday use, Opera’s MiniPay wallet has introduced a groundbreaking feature that allows users in Argentina and Brazil to directly spend their stablecoins — particularly USDT — through local payment systems. What’s New: “Pay Like a Local” The key innovation is MiniPay’s “Pay like a local” function, which links a user’s USDT balance to two widely used payment infrastructures in Latin America: PIX in Brazil Mercado Pago in Argentina  With this integration, MiniPay users can simply scan a QR code at a merchant and pay using their stablecoin wallet. Behind the scenes, USDT is instantly converted into the local currency (Brazilian Real or Argentine Peso) so that merchants receive fiat — no crypto exposure on their end.  Why It Matters This update bridges a fundamental gap between crypto and real-world payments: Practical Utility : Instead of holding USDT only as a speculative asset, users can now u...
Đăng nhận xét
Read more »

Naver’s Strategic Leap into Crypto: Acquiring Dunamu to Own Upbit and Launch a Won‑Backed Stablecoin

 In a landmark move that signals the convergence of internet platforms, fintech, and cryptocurrency, South Korean tech conglomerate Naver Corporation is set to acquire Dunamu Inc., the parent company of crypto exchange Upbit, according to multiple industry reports.  Why this deal matters Here are some of the key reasons why this acquisition is so significant: Platform meets crypto‑finance : Naver, known for its dominant Korean internet portal and ecosystem, is stepping deeply into digital finance by acquiring Dunamu, which runs Upbit — one of South Korea’s largest crypto exchanges. Equity swap structure : The deal is reportedly structured as a share swap via Naver’s fintech subsidiary, Naver Financial, rather than a purely cash purchase. Sources suggest a swap ratio in the neighborhood of 1 : 3 or 1 : 4 (Naver Financial shares : Dunamu shares). Valuation implications : Market estimates put Dunamu’s valuation at about 15 trillion won , while Naver Financial is valu...
Đăng nhận xét
Read more »