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Monero (XMR) Plunges Below $400 Amid Rising Selling Pressure—What’s Next?

 In recent trading sessions, the privacy-focused cryptocurrency Monero (XMR) has experienced a sharp downturn, slipping below the key $400 mark. This development reflects mounting bearish sentiment and raises questions about the next level of support and potential downside risk.

Sharp Drop and Market Sentiment

On Wednesday, Monero dropped more than 9 %, completely erasing the recovery gains achieved over the past weekend. The sharp decline appears to have triggered fear among traders, with the derivatives market registering increased short positions and reduced open interest in XMR futures. For instance, open interest on XMR futures declined by roughly 3.14 %, falling to a 24-hour figure of about USD 78.47 million, signalling that capital may be exiting the space amid waning confidence. 
Further illustrating weakening sentiment: the long/short ratio of XMR showed that short positions accounted for 55.48 % of total trading activity, pulling the ratio down to approximately 0.8025. 
Taken together, these data points suggest that traders are increasingly leaning bearish on Monero, and that the derivatives market may be exerting additional downward pressure.

Technical Structure: Bears Gaining the Upper Hand

From a technical perspective, the charts are flashing warning signs for bulls. On the daily timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 48, breaking below the neutral 50-level and indicating that bullish momentum is weakened. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator has generated a sell signal: the MACD line (green) has crossed beneath the signal line (red), suggesting a resurgence of downward momentum. 
On the support/resistance front, critical Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are coming into focus:

  • EMA 50 at ~USD 348

  • EMA 100 at ~USD 326

  • EMA 200 at ~USD 304

    A closing below USD 358 — which coincides with a previous peak (July 14) — would confirm a double-top breakdown pattern, paving the way for accelerated decline. 
    On the upside, if Monero is to attempt a rebound, it would face resistance at around USD 372 (the level from June 3). 

What the Sell-Off Implies

The convergence of weak derivatives activity, negative momentum indicators, and critical support levels being challenged suggests that Monero may be entering a deeper corrective phase. Key implications include:

  • The reduction in open interest suggests that participants may be exiting rather than adding positions — a bearish sign.

  • The dominance of short positions implies the market is expecting further declines.

  • Technical breakdowns often accelerate once key EMAs are breached — in this case, if XMR falls below ~USD 348, the next stops could be around USD 324 and USD 304.

  • Limited short-term bounce potential unless a meaningful reversal signal emerges.

Monitor These Key Levels & Indicators

To better understand what might happen next, watch for:

  • A daily close below ~USD 348 (EMA 50) as confirmation of deeper downside.

  • A rebound above ~USD 372 could invalidate the immediate bearish scenario and shift momentum back toward bullish.

  • Changes in derivatives metrics (open interest rising again, long/short ratio moving toward 1.0) as signs of potential stabilisation.

  • On-chain or ecosystem updates: given Monero’s privacy-centric profile, any regulatory, adoption, or protocol news could influence sentiment significantly.

Final Thoughts

Monero’s descent below USD 400 underscores a broader caution in the crypto market, particularly among lesser-liquid assets. While the privacy features of Monero remain unique, the current trading dynamics suggest that until buyers step back in decisively, the downside risk remains elevated. As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance before making decisions.

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