Crypto BCC

 The world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), recently plunged to approximately $88,600 , marking its lowest level since April and erasing more than 5 % of its gains for the year.  Macro Backdrop: The Fed’s Warning Bell The slide in Bitcoin’s price coincided with the release of the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) minutes from its October meeting, in which policymakers flagged the economy’s exposure to “two‑sided risks” and signalled deep divisions over the pace of monetary policy easing.  Key concerns cited by the Fed include: Slowing job growth and rising unemployment, weakening the labour market’s resilience.  Inflation that remains persistently above the Fed’s target — thanks in part to persistent service‑price inflation and tariffs.  A recognition that monetary policy is not on a preset path; upcoming decisions — including the December meeting — are entirely conditional.  The market’s interpretation of the minutes was swift: the odds of a...

 In a fascinating and important discussion about the future of Bitcoin, leading cryptographer and entrepreneur Adam Back has made it clear that the real story isn’t about quantum computing breaking Bitcoin today , but rather about preparing now for a potential 20-year journey toward quantum resistance.  The Conventional Fear: Quantum Computers vs. Bitcoin For years, the crypto community has cycled through a predictable narrative: “One day a quantum computer will crack Bitcoin’s cryptography and end it.” The pattern is: a lab announces a qubit milestone, hype ensues, panic sets in about Bitcoin’s security, then things quiet down as reality sets in. Adam Back interrupts that story by shifting the frame. He’s saying: this threat may be far off, but the preparation needs to start now .  Back’s Timeframe: 20 to 40 Years Back estimates that Bitcoin is not at immediate risk of being broken by a quantum computer. His comment: “Bitcoin might not face a cryptographically-p...

 November has long held a special place in the hearts of many crypto investors. Historically, Bitcoin has delivered its strongest average returns in that month—a statistic that has become a marketing mantra in the crypto world. But a closer look at the facts reveals cracks in that narrative. According to an analysis by CoinPhoton, the oft-quoted average return for Bitcoin in November (41.35 %) is a product of a skewed dataset and a one-off explosion in early years, rather than a reliable forecast.  Why the “strong November” narrative exists From 2013 onward, Bitcoin’s November average return has been reported at around 41.35 %. That figure seems eye-catching—it suggests that investors can expect major upside in November. However, that number owes most of its weight to the first year in the calculation: 2013, when Bitcoin gained approximately 449% in November. Because that one outlier is so large, it skews the whole average upward, making later years seem stronger by comparis...

 In recent weeks, the cryptocurrency market in general — and Bitcoin in particular — has been under significant pressure. According to a recent analysis from Coin Photon, a key factor stands out: improving liquidity may hold the key to a rebound, yet looming macroeconomic risks remain a material threat.  The Current Situation As of now, investors are keenly awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve System’s upcoming meeting, scheduled for December 10, where policy-rate decisions could further influence risk assets. The backdrop is one of rising tension: inflation remains elevated, growth appears to be decelerating, and the consensus on monetary policy is far from settled.  At the same time, liquidity conditions in the U.S. financial system are under strain. The Fed’s balance sheet continues to shrink, the U.S. dollar (DXY) has strengthened, and corporate, transport, and real‐estate data are showing signs of stress — all of which bear on Bitcoin, given its historical ...

 In a landmark move at the intersection of traditional finance and digital assets, the state of New Hampshire has green-lit the issuance of the first U.S. municipal bond collateralized by Bitcoin (BTC). According to the announcement, the bond will be valued at approximately $100 million and will be backed by Bitcoin held in custody by BitGo.  A New Hybrid Financial Instrument This initiative represents an innovative blending of asset classes. Here’s what we know so far: The bond is structured such that Bitcoin serves as the collateral. BitGo acts as the custodian, ensuring the BTC is held securely.  A safeguard mechanism is built in: If the price of Bitcoin drops below a threshold amounting to 130% collateral coverage, the position will be automatically liquidated. This “over-collateralization” is designed to protect investors from volatility.  The proceeds are intended for the “Bitcoin Economic Development Fund” in New Hampshire, aimed at fostering local...

 As of a recent milestone, Bitcoin has now crossed the mark of approximately 19.95 million coins mined , representing over 95 % of its hard-capped total supply of 21 million. Despite this significant achievement, the remaining <5 % of issuance will be staggered over a surprisingly long timeframe—potentially more than 100 years until complete issuance is achieved.  1. The Issuance Schedule and Halving Mechanism Bitcoin’s issuance is engineered through its underlying protocol. Every time a block is mined, a block‐reward is given to the miner; this reward is halved approximately every 210,000 blocks (or about every four years).  The most recent halving occurred on 20 April 2024, reducing the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. According to current estimates, miners are now producing around 450 BTC per day (down from about 900 BTC/day before the halving).  Because of this geometric decline, the remaining ~1.05 million BTC will be released at a very slow...

In a recent commentary, Arthur Hayes — co-founder of BitMEX and former CEO of the same — attributes the current decline in Bitcoin’s price not to deteriorating fundamentals of the crypto market, but rather to a weakening U.S. dollar liquidity environment.  Here are the key points of Hayes’s analysis and what they might mean for the market now and ahead. 1. Short-term pressure: USD liquidity as the culprit Hayes points out that while Bitcoin’s long-term story remains intact, the short-term weakness in the market is caused by a shrinking pool of U.S. dollar liquidity. According to him: The usual channels of cash flowing into crypto — such as arbitrage between ETFs and more broadly the differential flows into digital-asset trading (DAT) — are starting to dry up.  With less liquidity entering the market, the demand side of Bitcoin is under pressure, which is applying downward force on the price. Hayes forecasts that if the liquidity tightness persists, Bitcoin could dr...